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China in a Globalizing World -UNCTAD- 2005
In China itself, policy-makers are asking themselves how the country’s rapid economic growth can be sustained; how welfare benefits for the Chinese population can be enhanced; how to close the considerable remaining gap between China and the world’s leading economies within the shortest possible time; and how to redress socioeconomic inequality within the country. China is fully aware that it faces a number of development challenges: external pressure on currency revaluation is mounting; financial reform is far from complete; existing bottlenecks risk slowing down rapid growth; income inequality is proving difficult to redress; and a social safety net has yet to be established.
It was against this backdrop of domestic and international policy development research that the Ministry of Commerce of China (MOFCOM) came to an agreement with UNCTAD to explore some of the key issues relating to China’s development path in an increasingly globalizing world. UNCTAD has closely followed and analysed developments in China, while also extending technical assistance. Promoting sustainable and equitable economic development and supporting the beneficial integration of developing countries into the global economy are at the core of UNCTAD’s mission. This study of the economic issues of immediate concern to China and the rest of the world provides a welcome opportunity to enhance UNCTAD’s existing partnership with the Chinese Government, as well as with Chinese policy makers and academics. This book comprises a selection of presentations made at seminars jointly organized by UNCTAD and MOFCOM, with the participation of the Asian Development Bank Institute. Work on the project is ongoing and UNCTAD looks forward to further fruitful outcomes of this close collaboration.
Carlos Fortin
Officer-in-Charge of UNCTAD

China’s spectacular growth since the mid-1960s – macroeconomic conditions and economic policy changes
By Heiner Flassbeck, in collaboration with Sebastian Dullien and Michael Geiger
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • I. China's Growth Performance in Perspective
  • I.1 Exports and the external balance
  • I.2 Domestic developments: investment and consumption
  • I.3 Price and exchange-rate developments
  • II. China’s Successful Heterodox Policy Mix
  • II.1 The exchange-rate regime and its influence on exports and capital accumulation
  • II.2 The role of the wage regime
  • II.3 Complementary macroeconomic management
  • III. The Role of FDI
  • IV. Policy Conclusions
  • References
  • 1 GDP Per Capita Growth, Initial + 10 Years
  • 2 Export Performances in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea
  • 3 Developments of Imports in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea
  • 4 Investments in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea
  • 5 Consumption Growth in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea
  • 6 Wage Increase and Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing
  • 7 Inflation and Nominal Exchange Rate, 1987–2002
  • 8 Different Measures for China's Real Effective Exchange Rate
  • 9 Nominal and Real Interest Rates, 1994–2003
  • 10 Unit Labour Cost Growth and Inflation Rate, 1987–2000
  • 11 Real Wage and Productivity Growth, 1987–2000
  • 12 The Economic Cycle and the Wage Development
  • 13 Change in Government and SOE Investment, 1991–2002
  • 14 Export Share Generated by Foreign-Owned Firms
  • 1 Main Asian Growth Episodes
  • 2 Empirical Investment Function
  • 3 The Share of State-Owned Industrial Enterprises of the Total Chinese Wage Bill
  • 4 Potential Scope of 1994/1995 I Wage Reform
  • 5 Potential Scope of 1994/1995 II Wage Reform

Globalization and the integration of China into the world economy
By Yuanjiang Sun
A summary of the presentation
Cnina and its neighbours: partners or competitors for trade and investment?
By John Weiss
  • Introduction
  • I. Trade Structure: China and the Region
  • II. Changes in Competitiveness in Third Markets
  • III. Competition for FDI: Is There a Diversion Effect?
  • IV. What is the Evidence on Trade Creation?
  • V. Conclusions
  • References
  • 1 Correlation Coefficients China and Regional Export Structures
  • 2 Technological Structure of Manufactured Exports 2000
  • 3 Demand Decomposition Analysis of Manufactures: China and NIEs
  • 4 China Threat to NIEs in the World Market 2000
  • 5 ASEAN 5 Decomposition of Export Increase to the United States, 1995–2000
  • 6 Trade Growth with China WTO Accession
  • 7 Absolute Change in Bilateral Trade Balance with China in 2020 Compared with Baseline Scenario
  • 8 Trade Growth with China Joining ASEAN
  • 9 Trade growth with China Joining ASEAN Plus 3
  • 10 Intra-Industry Competitiveness 2020 for China by Sector and Trading Partner
  • 11 Income Effects Relative to Baseline 2015
  • 12 Income Effects Relative to Baseline 2015 without Removal of Barriers on Food and Agricultural Products

Why is China the world's number one anti-dumping?
By Yuefen Li
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • I. External Factors
  • I.1 Anti-dumping laws could be used to benefit multinational enterprises and victimize late industrializers
  • I.2 MNEs can jump tariffs and avert anti-dumping
  • via their foreign affiliates
  • I.3. Trade liberalization, contingent protection and newly industrializing economies
  • II. Domestic Factors Contributing to the Utilization of Contingent Protection Measures against Chinese Exports
  • II.1. Fast trade growth of standard basic goods with heavy market concentration
  • II.2. The diminishing role of the State
  • II.3. Processing trade is prone to trade frictions
  • II.4. WTO accession: non-market economy status
  • II.5. Lack of legal capacity to fight against anti-dumping litigations
  • II.6. Lack of leverage
  • II.7. Developing countries with similar economic development
  • III. Conclusion
  • References
  • 1 Sales of Services and Goods of United States Affiliates in China, 1989 – 2001
  • 2 Trade Expansion in China from 1982–2004
  • 3 Export Destinations
  • 4 Trend of Processing Trade
  • Ratio of Share of Anti-Dumping Investigations and Share of Export Value

China’s new concept for development
By Jiyao Bi
  • Introduction
  • I. China’s Development Trends and Issues
  • II. China’s Development Strategy for Modernization Drive
  • III. China’s New Concept for Development and its Implications
  • IV. China’s Policy Strategy for Implementing the
  • New Concept for Development
  • V. Conclusion
  • References
  • 1 China’s Economic Growth: 1978–2004
  • 2 China and World Growth: 1996–2004
  • 3 China’s Imports and Exports: 1978–2004
  • 4 China’s FDI Inflows: 1984–2004

FDI in China: Trends and macroeconomic challenges
By Sebastian Dullien
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • I. FDI in China: Stylized Trends
  • II. The Role of FDI in China’s Development
  • II.1. Theoretical arguments in favour and against FDI
  • II.2. Empirical evidence on FDI
  • III. Imminent Trends in Chinese FDI
  • III.1. WTO accession
  • III.2. Real appreciation
  • III.3. Opening of the capital account
  • IV. Potential Problems
  • IV.1. Increased crowding out of domestic firms
  • IV.2. Balance of payment problems
  • V. Policy Conclusions
  • V.1. Strengthening domestic firms
  • V.2. Managing the real appreciation
  • References
  • 1 FDI as Share of Fixed Capital Formation in China
  • 2 FDI as Share of Private Investment in China
  • 3 Share of FDI in China’s Capital Stock
  • 4 China’s RCA for 5 Top Export Groups in 2002
  • 5 Ratio Output Volume to Value of Imported Parts
  • 6 Relative Value Added for Different Products
  • 1 Single Sector’s Share of FDI
  • 2 China’s Top 10 Exports in 2002

Market opening, enterprise learning and industry transformation - – A case study of China's car industry
By Hong Song, Chai Yu
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • I. Opening of China’s Automotive Industry
  • II. Strategies of Multinational Enterprises and Their Impact on China
  • III. Strategic Adjustment of Chinese Automakers
  • IV. Market Opening and the Transition of Development Model of Chinese Car Industry
  • V. Strategic Counterfactual Analysis for Industry Transformation
  • VI. Conclusions and Implications
  • References
  • 1 Changes in China’s Automotive Market between 2000 and 2006
  • 1 Comparison of the Auto Prices in China and the World, 1 January 2000
  • 2 Tariff Reduction and WTO Commitments Made by China for Joining GATT or WTO
  • 3 China’s Major Car Makers in 2000
  • 4 China’s Automobile Industry: Enterprises and Production
  • 5 Impact on Employment
  • 6 Export and Import of Joint Ventures in 2002
  • 7 The Benefits of Learning on Domestic Enterprises