After the Global Crisis: An Uneven and Fragile Recovery

A. Recent trends in the world economy

1. Global growth and international trade

2. Recent trends in primary commodity markets

B. Global recovery and rebalancing: current situation and prospects

1. Developing countries at the vanguard of a potential recovery

2. Coping with the vagaries of unfettered global finance

3. United States: former global growth engine facing headwinds

4. Europe: instability and divergence

C. The need for global coordination and caution in withdrawing macroeconomic stimulus

1. Fears of inflation, risks of deflation

2. Does the G-20 process work?

3. Are global imbalances set to widen again? 

D. The task ahead: reforming the global monetary and financial system

1. The exchange rate problem

2. Stabilizing the financial system

E. Outlook

Notes

References

Annex to chapter I : Credit Default Swaps

Potential Employment Effects of a Global Rebalancing

A. Introduction

B. Rebalancing growth in the United States

1. Relationship between the current-account balance and consumer demand in the United States

2. United States consumption spending and imports

C. Rebalancing growth in China: potential employment effects

1. Introduction

2. How dependent is Chinese employment on exports?

3. Household consumption and the share of labour compensation in total income

4. Prospects for increasing household consumption in China

D. The potential impact of a global rebalancing on trade flows and employment

E. Conclusions: the need for a global macroeconomic reorientation for growth and employment creation

Notes

References

Annex to chapter II : Simulation of the Trade and Employment Effects of Global Rebalancing: A Technical Note

Macroeconomic Aspects of Job Creation and Unemployment

A. Introduction: globalization and employment

B. The neglected role of aggregate demand growth for employment creation

1. The problem with microeconomic reasoning about the labour market

2. Macroeconomic trends are key to employment

3. Do macroeconomic trends matter equally in developing countries?

C. Beyond capital-labour substitution: wages from a macroeconomic perspective

1. The “price of labour” and employment

2. Productivity growth and employment

D. Productivity-oriented wage growth supports investment and innovation

E. Conclusions

Notes

References

Structural Change and Employment Creation in Developing Countries

A. Introduction

B. Employment, productivity growth and structural change in developing countries

1. The employment challenge in developing countries

2. Unemployment in developing countries: an overview

3. Quality of employment

4. Structural change and employment: recent evidence

5. The extractive industries: employment impact and economic linkages

C. Impact of globalization and reforms on employment in developing countries

1. Latin America: stagnation and deterioration of labour markets in the 1980s and 1990s

2. Africa: persistence of a large informal sector despite structural adjustment policies

3. South, South-East and E ast Asia: growth and employment before and after the 1997-1998 financial crisis

Notes

References

Revising the Policy Framework for Sustained Growth, Employment Creation and Poverty Reduction 

A. Introduction

B. Employment creation as a goal of economic policy in retrospect

1. Full employment in the “golden age of capitalism” 

2. Paradigm shift in the 1980s 

3. Structural adjustment and globalization

4. Experience with heterodox policies

C. Reassignment of macroeconomic policies for employment creation

1. The need for a new policy approach

2. Fiscal policy and the role of the public sector

3. Monetary and financial policies

4. An incomes policy for wage-led growth

5. Incomes policy and inflation control

D. Institution building and the role of the State in developing countries

1. Collective bargaining and the role of  labour and employer organizations

2. Minimum wages

3. Public employment schemes

4. Improving incomes of small producers

5. Taxation: finding the right balance

E. The external dimension

Notes

References

Selected UNCTAD publications