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Biofuels and long-term land use dynamics (2008)
by Woltjer, Geert
From the GTAP Eleventh Annual Conference: Future of the Global Economy - June 12 -14 2008
This paper investigates opportunities to improve the land market in GTAP. Different theoretical foundations for land supply, land substitution and land intensification are investigated and related with the current approaches for land use modeling in GTAP. With the help of a simple mathematical model the issues are illustrated and an implementation of the ideas in the GTAP model is described. Simple results with a biofuels scenario are presented.

Biofuels and their By-Products: Global Economic and Environmental Implications (2008)
by Taheripour, Farzad, Thomas Hertel, Wally Tyner, Jayson Beckman and Dileep Birur
From the GTAP Eleventh Annual Conference: Future of the Global Economy - June 12 -14 2008
Several papers have used general equilibrium models and addressed the economy-wide and environmental consequences of producing biofuels at a large scale. These papers mainly argue that since biofuels are mostly produced from agricultural sources, their effects are largely felt in agricultural markets with major land use and environmental consequences. In this paper, we argue that virtually all of these studies have overstated the impact of liquid biofuels on agricultural markets due to the fact that they have ignored the role of by-products resulting from the production of biofuels.
The importance of incorporating by-products of biofuel production in economic models is well recognized by some partial equilibrium analyses of biofuel production. However, this issue has not been tackled by those conducting CGE analysis of biofuels programs. Accordingly, this paper explicitly introduces Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles (DDGS), the major by-product of grain based ethanol, into the GTAP database and modifies the GTAP-E model to analyze the economic and environmental impacts of regional and international mandate policies designed to stimulate bioenergy production and use in the US and EU. Unlike many CGE models which are characterized by single product sectors, here grain based ethanol and DDGS jointly are produced by one industry.
We show that models with and without DDGS demonstrate different portraits from the economic impacts of international biofuel mandates for the world economy in 2015. While both models demonstrate significant changes in the agricultural production pattern across the world, the model with DDGS shows smaller changes in the production of cereal grains and larger changes for oilseeds products in the US. In the presence of DDGS, prices change more generously due to the mandate policies. Finally, we show that incorporating DDGS into the model significantly changes the land use consequences of the biofuel mandate polices.

BioFuels and Trade: World Agricultural Market Impacts (2008)
by Stillman, Richard, Agapi Somwaru, May Peters and Edwin Young
From the GTAP Eleventh Annual Conference: Future of the Global Economy - June 12 -14 2008
Increased use of agricultural commodities in the production of biofuels has led to rapid increases in commodity prices in the U.S. and the world. In 2006 agricultural commodity market prices increased dramatically and have remained at high level. Expansion in corn-ethanol plants rapidly has increased the demand for corn and will exercise an upward pressure on commodity prices until alternative biofuel production can be sourced from a much wider variety of feedstock. In this paper we analyze the impacts of world-wide policy induced demand on agricultural commodity production, use, and prices. We look at alternative scenarios and use of various policy instruments to access the possible impact of biofuels on the agricultural sector globally and capture the links between the markets for oil, biofuels, feedstock, and the by-products of biofuel processing.

Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates (2008)
by Hertel, Thomas, Wally Tyner and Dileep Birur
From the GTAP Eleventh Annual Conference: Future of the Global Economy - June 12 -14 2008
The recent rise in world oil prices, coupled with heightened interest in the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions, has led to a sharp increase in domestic biofuels production around the world. Previous authors have devoted considerable attention to the impacts of these policies on a country-by-country basis. However, there are also strong interactions between these programs, as they compete in world markets for feedstocks and ultimately for a limited supply of global land. In this paper, we evaluate the interplay between two of the largest biofuels programs, namely the renewable fuel mandates in the US and the EU. We examine how the presence of each of these programs influences the other, and also how their combined impact influences global markets and land use around the world.
We begin with an analysis of the origins of the recent bio-fuel boom, using the historical period from 2001-2006 for purposes of model validation. This was a period of rapidly rising oil prices, increased subsidies in the EU, and, in the US, there was a ban on the major competitor to ethanol for gasoline additives. Our analysis of this historical period permits us to evaluate the relative contribution of each of these factors to the global biofuel boom. We also use this historical simulation to establish a 2006 benchmark biofuel economy from which we conduct our analysis of future mandates.
Our prospective analysis of the impacts of the biofuels boom on commodity markets focuses on the 2006-2015 time period, during which existing investments and new mandates in the US and EU are expected to substantially increase the share of agricultural products (e.g., corn in the US, oilseeds in the EU, and sugar in Brazil) utilized by the biofuels sector. In the US, this share could more than double from 2006 levels, while the share of oilseeds going to biodiesel in the EU could triple.

Biofuels Mandates, Land Use and Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2008)
by Golub, Alla, Thomas Hertel, Steven Rose and Brent Sohngen
From the GTAP Eleventh Annual Conference: Future of the Global Economy - June 12 -14 2008
There is significant policy interest in liquid biofuels with appealing prospects for energy security, farm security, poverty alleviation, and climate change. Large-scale commercial biofuel production could have far reaching implications for regional and global markets – particularly those related to energy and land use. As such, large-scale biofuels programs are likely to have significant impacts on global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper develops a novel global CGE model with explicit biofuel and land markets and greenhouse gas emissions and carbon stocks. The model is able to estimate the effects on the broad range of input and output markets potentially affected globally by biofuels policies. Using the model, we evaluate the market, land-use, and emissions implications of a range of biofuel volume mandates. We find… We then introduce additional methods for (1) estimating the dynamic implications of biofuels policies for global forests, and (2) evaluating the interaction between biofuels policies and GHG mitigation opportunities in order to identify complementarities and potentially reinforcing policies.

Biofuels, Poverty, and Growth: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Mozambique (2008)
by Arndt, Channing, Rui Benfica, Finn Tarp, James Thurlow and Rafael Uaiene
From the GTAP Eleventh Annual Conference: Future of the Global Economy - June 12 -14 2008
Large investments in bio-fuels are currently in process in Mozambique. This analysis seeks to assess the macroeconomic implications of biofuels investment for growth and income distribution using an economywide framework. Results suggest that biofuels provide Mozambique with an opportunity to substantially enhance economic growth and poverty reduction. The primary biofuels scenario modeled here results in increases in the average annual economic growth rate of 0.6% and reductions in poverty incidence by six percentage points at the end of a 12 year phase in period. Institutional arrangements and production technologies matter. We find that an outgrower approach is much more strongly pro-poor due to greater use of unskilled labor and the accrual of land rents to smallholders compared with a plantation approach. The growth and poverty reduction benefits of outgrower schemes are further enhanced if the schemes result in technology spillovers to other crops.

Brazilian structural adjustment to rapid growth in fuel ethanol demand (2008)
by Giesecke, James, Mark Horridge and Jose Antonio Scaramucci
From the GTAP Eleventh Annual Conference: Future of the Global Economy - June 12 -14 2008
In response to oil price rises and carbon emission concerns, policies promoting increased ethanol usage in gasoline blends are considered by many countries, including major energy users such as USA, EU and Japan. As a result, Brazil, as the largest sugar ethanol producer and exporter in the world, can expect growing foreign demand for ethanol exports. Also, the introduction of flex-fuel vehicles in Brazil is causing domestic sales of ethanol to increase steadily. In this paper, we investigate the regional and industrial economic consequences of rapid growth in Brazilian ethanol domestic consumption and exports. For this, we use a disaggregated multi-regional (top down) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with energy industry detail. Our modelling emphasises a number of features of ethanol production in Brazil which we expect to be important in determining the adjustment of its regional economies to a substantial expansion in ethanol production. These include regional differences in ethanol and sugar production technologies, sugarcane harvesting methods and the elasticity of land supply to sugarcane production. Some of the conclusions are as follows. (i) Debate on the prospects for the Brazilian ethanol industry often places a high weight on export growth. Yet, in our simulations, growth in domestic ethanol demand will be the major influence on the Brazilian economy, at least to 2020. (ii) The pressure for further land clearance is often associated with a rapid ethanol growth scenario. But only a small (less than 2%) reduction in land use by other agriculture is necessary to accommodate the required expansion in ethanol production. Food production is equally affected by the appreciation of real exchange rate (Dutch disease effect) and growth of the light-duty vehicle fleet. (iii) Tight enforcement of a nation-wide ban on manual harvesting could reduce the ability of some (poor) regional economies to participate in the benefits of growth in ethanol production.

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